Tuesday, April 10, 2007

Sen. Clinton the "dominant frontrunner"

Gallup throws cold water on Obamamania. I'll have a chance to look more closely later today, but right now I really don't understand the numbers. E.g.: How is it that by Gallup finds static support for Obama among Democrats, but aggregated polling data shows a steep increase? Something wrong with Gallup's methodology? Or everyone else's?

(via Ben Smith of Politico)

UPDATE [4/10 1:16pm] ... Aha! Name recognition! The Gallup poll question was phrased this way:
Next, I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Democratic primary for president in the next election. After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Democratic nomination for President in the year 2008. ...
(Emphasis added.) What follows is a list of 11 people's names and positions, rotated by pollsters. After a list that tedious, it is easy to understand why most of those polled would simply revert to the name they know best: Clinton.

I don't know, anyone else have a theory? Or does the Gallup data ring true to you? How for-real is Clinton's lead?

1 comment:

haahnster said...

Hillary just might be the ultimate "nappy-headed ho."