Wednesday, January 30, 2008

Edwards Out

All that hooey about hording his delegates to be a convention king-maker appears to have been hogwash. According to CNN he's not going to immediately endorse.

How will his supporters break? My hunch is it depends on the state.


Rob said...

Sure it depends on the state, but in aggregate it has to help either Clinton or Obama, right? I mean personally I have no real idea which way they break, but I am almost certain that it won't be 50-50...

the cold cowboy said...

In the aggregate I would say Obama, though maybe only slightly.

If you're just voting for Edwards because the guy's white and you like him more than Hillary, you'll go for H-bomb. That may have been the case in SC (as some exit polls have indicated) but the trend can't be widely extrapolated to places like California and, well, most places not in the south.

If you're voting for him because you like his change message or his concern for the poor (as i suspect most people are), you're going to swing Obama, right? It seems like if you're a pro-establishment dem, you're already going to be a Hillary supporter.

It's not going to be "experience voters"-- Edwards had even less elected experience than Barry.

I'd certainly like Edwards to endorse Obama but I don't think it's going to matter as much as, say, a potential Gore endorsement. The change folks are going to take the Obama bait anyway -- it's the pro-establishment gang he's fishing for.

the cold cowboy said...

On second thought, I guess the "concern for the poor" group is probably up for grabs. Who knows.

Jake said...

I would guess that Edwards supporters are more likely to break Obama -- I feel like with Clinton as the establishment candidate, you're sort of either for her or against her. I think a lot of Edwards supporters are against her -- hence Obama.

Then again, I'm not exactly objective, here.