Monday, May 05, 2008

It was never going to end tomorrow

Ben Smith:
But it's also worth noting that, for all the suspicion of polls that we all adopt, the polls have been pretty much right in every single state since New Hampshire. Clinton's won where she led in the polling averages, despite media narratives to the contrary -- California, Massachusetts, and Texas. Obama's won where he led, despite chatter of a Clinton upset -- Wisconsin, for instance.

So maybe we all learned the wrong lesson from New Hampshire, where the facts on the ground got ahead of the polls. As it stands, Obama's up 6.5% in North Carolina in the RCP average; Clinton's up 4.6% in Indiana.
So maybe I am wrong about Obama being the likely winner in Indiana. But for what it's worth, I think there is zero chance that the race ends tomorrow, even if Obama were to somehow win both states by huge margins. The Clinton campaign's cry becomes "On to Kentucky!" and this just keeps going.

After Kentucky, I don't know -- "On to Puerto Rico!" doesn't have the same ring to it. All I am saying is, if Clinton has carried on campaigning through May 6, no way is she dropping out before June 4 no matter what happens tomorrow.

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