Sunday, October 26, 2008

Palin 2012 still not impossible

Just because I can't leave well enough alone, here is another post about Sarah Palin's 2012 campaign. This TPM post takes a look at Newsweek poll numbers that shaped up this way:
If John McCain is not elected president, which one of the following three possible candidates would you be most likely to support for the Republican presidential nomination in 2012?
Mitt Romney 35%
Mike Huckabee 26%
Sarah Palin 20%
TPM concludes that this means Palin "hasn't done herself any favors" by joining the ticket. But how can this possibly be true? What percentage support would Palin have had in a poll of Republicans let's say six months ago? One year ago?

To me those data say, wow, look at how Palin's support has risen meteorically among the GOP from 0.00001 percent all the way to 20 percent! At this rate she will overtake Romney by February.

Doesn't mean she'll win the nomination. Doesn't mean any darling-of-the-GOP-base wouldn't begin at a major structural disadvantage. But surely it's a bit crazy to argue that the campaign hasn't substantially increased her national profile.

P.S. ... This post from Patrick Ruffini asks the question in an interesting way: "Is Sarah Palin the right's Howard Dean?" Here is the nut, and it is an interesting one:
Right now, with the small donor and grassroots eruption for Obama, and vibrant progressive institutions that depend on the creativity of an energized base, the Right needs a broad-based movement more than it needs the approval of elites. That means making Palin's brand of politics -- even if she isn't the one who ultimately gets us there -- a permanent fixture in the conservative ecosystem.
Let's not get hung up on all the ways Palin is different from Dean. Who else in the conservative ecosystem can even pretend to activate the small-donor/grassroots/social-networking political model?

P.P.S. ... I think Saxdrop mentioned one a few months ago...

1 comment:

Don Hotdog said...

There are reasonable Republicans who are probably tired of being lumped in with the morons and racists and kooks in their party. Palin won't go anywhere because she is part of the moron faction. She doesn't get independents or swing voters at all. I agree that she's pivoting for a run in 2012 but I don't see it happening. If I were a republican I'd looking for someone more like Jindal.