Monday, November 03, 2008

Early voting = Election Day voting?

From this morning's First Read:
Obama holds an eight-point lead over McCain among likely voters, 51%-43%, according to the final national NBC/WSJ poll before the election. [...] One more thing: 30% say they've already voted, and those voters break by an identical 51%-43% margin.
Hmmm. Wouldn't you expect early voting to be more heavily weighted for Obama than a national poll? Enthusiasm, organization, boots-on-the-ground... I thought the Obama campaign's plan was to bank a huge lead in early voting.

Of course, 8 points is a huge lead, and even if Election Day results are closer than this, the Obama campaign has a cushion. Just saying...

UPDATE [11/3 9:21pm] ... Slate's Mickey Kaus has the same reaction and uses the same "hmmm" construction. I hereby retire from blogging.

UPDATE II [11/3 10:54pm] ... Now comes Marc Ambinder with this not-insignificant bit of information:
Historically, Republicans have had an advantage over Democrats in terms of absentee balloting; Democrats tend to outperform Republicans in terms of in-person early voting.
Aha! This means that simply by reaching parity with national polls, the Obama campaign has already made up substantial ground. So perhaps this is a demonstration of the campaign's superior enthusiasm/organization/boots-on-the-ground after all.

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